[Instrumental: Acoustic Guitar, Electric Guitar, Bass, Piano, Organ, Drums]
[Ocean Waves]
[Intro]
Walk the boards
(Like before)
Hear the gulls
(Along the shore)
Something’s different
(Can’t ignore)
The sand’s not where
(It was before)
[Verse 1]
Back in the nineties I heard the plans
(Build it higher, make a stand)
Casinos floating on the tide
(Keep the profits, enjoy the ride)
Stilts and platforms, bold designs
(Engineering beats the signs)
But the ocean keeps its own account
(And compounds every amount)
[Pre-Chorus]
One more storm
(One more tide)
One more inch
(Worldwide)
One more year
(And then some more)
The sea keeps knocking
(On the door)
[Refrain]
Our sure
(Shoreline)
Is past its prime
(Gone, gone, gone)
…long gone
Are you sure
(Of our sure)
Are you sure
(They’ll be more)
The shoreline
(Sure line?)
[Verse 2]
Garden Pier stands overhead
(Above where beaches used to spread)
Bring the beach up off the sand
(Adaptation by demand)
A clever fix?
(… or costly mix)
For every fix
(Needs another due)
When the asset starts to disappear
(The costs grow year by year)
Sea exponentially
[Pre-Chorus]
Move it back
(Raise it high)
Build a wall
(Try not to cry)
Add more sand
(Again and again)
The invoice grows
(Without an end)
Sea exponentially
[Refrain]
Our sure
(Shoreline)
Is past its prime
(Gone, gone, gone)
…long gone
Are you sure
(Of our sure)
Are you sure
(They’ll be more)
The shoreline
(Sure line?)
[Bridge]
[Organ Swells, Bass Pulse]
The maps said maybe
(Years ago)
The models warned
(What tides would show)
Speculation
(Became real)
Economic
(And real feel)
The future isn’t arriving
(Someday)
It’s checking in
(Today)
[Instrumental]
[Guitar Solo]
[Ocean Sounds Mixed with Wind]
[Final Refrain]
Our sure
(Shoreline)
Is past its prime
(Gone, gone, gone)
…long gone
Are you sure
(Of our sure)
Are you sure
(They’ll be more)
The shoreline
(Sure line?)
The coastline
(New line?)
The bottom line
(Cost line?)
Sea exponentially
[Outro]
[Ocean Waves]
Adapt
(If you must)
But adaptation
(Isn’t enough)
The cheaper path
(Still remains)
To heed the warning
(And change our game)
Our sure
(Shoreline)
Was never guaranteed
(Not permanently)
The shoreline
(Sure line?)
Not anymore
See the sea…
(Wash away exponentially)
What you used to own…
(Is in the disaster zone)
[Waves Fade]
[Silence]
About the Song
I saw an interesting climate story today about the future of the Jersey Shore and the growing challenges posed by sea-level rise and coastal erosion.
One of my earliest climate-related case studies dates back to the 1990s and involved the Atlantic City casino industry. At the time, I was examining how major businesses were investing in vulnerable shoreline real estate and whether those investments adequately accounted for long-term climate risks.
Some of the ideas being discussed then were remarkably ambitious. Among them were concepts involving casinos built on stilts or even floating platforms, with visitors ferried back and forth from the mainland. From both a climate science perspective and an economic perspective, I viewed these proposals as problematic. As I was developing one of my first climate-adjusted real estate valuation models, it became increasingly clear that rising seas, stronger coastal storms, and accelerating erosion would create risks that were difficult to overcome simply by elevating structures.
More than three decades later, a recent news story suggests that portions of that future may already be arriving.
The story focuses on Showboat Resort owner Bart Blatstein and his plans to build an elevated beach club on Atlantic City’s historic Garden Pier. The project is intended to provide visitors with a beach experience while avoiding a growing problem that has become increasingly difficult to ignore: the beach itself is disappearing.
The northern section of Atlantic City’s shoreline has experienced severe and persistent erosion. Winter storms, stronger wave action, higher tides, and long-term sea-level rise have repeatedly stripped away sand, leaving sections of the beach narrower and less usable than in previous decades. In some areas, finding enough dry sand to comfortably enjoy a day at the beach has become a challenge.
Rather than attempting to restore the traditional beach experience directly on the sand, the elevated beach club effectively bypasses the problem. Built above the shoreline on the 113-year-old Garden Pier, the facility will allow visitors to enjoy many of the amenities typically associated with a beach destination without worrying about high tides, muddy conditions, storm-damaged beaches, or the gradual loss of shoreline itself.
From a business standpoint, the project is an innovative adaptation strategy. From a climate perspective, however, it may also represent something larger: an early example of how coastal communities are beginning to redesign themselves around the realities of a changing environment.
Historically, beaches have been among the most valuable economic assets along the Jersey Shore. Hotels, casinos, restaurants, and boardwalk attractions all depend upon access to a stable and attractive coastline. When the beach begins to disappear, the entire economic model comes under pressure. Communities can replenish sand, build seawalls, elevate structures, and redesign infrastructure, but each adaptation carries additional costs.
This is why the story caught my attention. It reminded me of those early Atlantic City case studies from the 1990s. Back then, discussions about elevated casinos and floating structures seemed futuristic. Today, elevated recreational facilities are becoming practical responses to conditions that many scientists projected decades ago.
The broader lesson is that climate change is no longer simply a future concern. Businesses are increasingly making investment decisions based on changing coastlines, stronger storms, rising seas, and shifting patterns of erosion. What once appeared to be speculative climate scenarios are gradually becoming real-world economic considerations.
The Garden Pier project may ultimately prove successful as a tourism attraction. Yet it also serves as a visible reminder that adaptation is already underway. In many places along the Jersey Shore, the question is no longer whether climate change will affect coastal development. The question is how quickly communities can adapt as the shoreline itself continues to change.
Moral of the story: Adaptation is increasingly becoming a cost of doing business along vulnerable coastlines, but it does not solve the underlying problem. As climate impacts accelerate, the price of adaptation rises. Mitigation remains the most effective and economical long-term strategy.
From the album “Out Your Window“