LYRICS
2 x 2 is 4
4 x 2 is 8
8 x 2 is 16
Are you starting to appreciate (2,4,8)
What it will mean? (16)
We’ve found
Doubling down
Astound
Doubling down
Acceleration
Aberration
No celebration
Man’s castration
It’s come unwound
I’m out of time
We’ve gone hellbound
Lost our reason and rhyme
All participate
At an alarming rate
Created fate
Man-made late
- Doubling-Down-Part-I.mp3 (unplugged to save energy)
- Doubling-Down-Part-II.mp3
- Doubling-Down-Part-II-Instrumental.mp3
- Doubling-Down-LH-Casio-WK-3500.MID (Left Hand / also controlled Korg PS60)
- Doubling-Down-RH-Yamaha-PSR-740.MID (Right Hand / also controlled microKorg and miniNOVA vocorder)
Chords: E G / G A C B7 E / E A C E; Part II @ 152 Beats Per Minute
Instrumentation: Vocals (TC-Helicon VOICELIVE and MiniNova Vocorder), Ibanez Acoustic Guitar (AW54CE), Fender Squire Mini Electric Guitar, Fender Jazz Bass (Boss Digital Delay), Keyboards (Korg PS60, Casio WK-3500, Yamaha PSR-740, MiniNova, MicroKorg)
ABOUT THE SONG
The song “Doubling Down” reflects on the concept of exponential growth, particularly in the context of climate change. The repeated multiplication of numbers (2 x 2 is 4, 4 x 2 is 8, etc.) serves as a metaphor for the rapid acceleration of certain phenomena, such as sea level rise, temperature increase, or carbon emissions, which are doubling at alarming rates.
The repetition of “Doubling down” emphasizes the intensification of this trend, suggesting a sense of urgency and concern. It underscores the notion that the consequences of doubling down on unsustainable practices or behaviors are becoming increasingly evident and impactful.
References to “acceleration” and “aberration” highlight the unexpected and alarming nature of this trend, contrasting with the absence of celebration and a sense of loss or regret. The lyrics convey a feeling of inevitability and urgency, emphasizing the need for collective action to address and mitigate the impacts of climate change before it’s too late.
Overall, “Doubling Down” serves as a poignant commentary on the exponential nature of climate change and the imperative for society to confront and address it with urgency and determination.
ABOUT THE SCIENCE
How fast are humans causing the climate to change? When we started our experiments in the 1990’s, we thought the time scale was in millenniums. If climate change were happening on a linear basis, we would have been correct; however, by the late 90’s we were convinced climate change was non-linear.
Doubling time is the amount of time it takes for a quantity to double in size (exponential growth). By 2020, there was enough data to see the doubling time of some anthropogenic climate affects had gone from 100 years to 10 years. For instance the rate of sea level rise has gone from about 1.5 millimeters per year to over 3 millimeters. We expect to see the doubling period to continue to shrink raising the possibility of sea levels rising a foot/year by 2050.
T_{d}=t \frac{\ln (2)}{\ln \left(1+\frac{r}{100}\right)}
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= | doubling time |
 |
= | time |
 |
= | growth rate |
Though the rate of change in climate disasters’ intensity, duration, and likelihood vary according to the type of extreme weather, a “rule-of-thumb” can be derived from the Canada wildfires of 2023. The World Weather Attribution Organization found, “Climate change made the cumulative severity of Quebec’s 2023 fire season to the end of July around 50% more intense, and seasons of this severity at least seven times more likely to occur.”
50% more intense
7 x more likely
These numbers may be similar in other catastrophes like hurricanes, heat waves, droughts, floods, tornadoes, and sea level rise.
If the doubling time remains at 10 years, we could see extreme events 100% more intense and/or longer in duration, as well as, 14 times more likely to occur. As mentioned above, we expect the doubling time to be reduced. If the doubling time is 5 years, in ten years we could see 200% more intense and longer extreme weather events being 28 times more likely to occur.
2024 Update
Global average sea level rose by about 0.3 inches (0.76 centimeters) from 2022 to 2023, according to a NASA-led analysis. When we authored this paper in 2023, we could not have foreseen the swift acceleration of this trend. Initially projected to double over a span of 100 years, the rate of sea level rise dramatically escalated, shortening the doubling period to a mere 10 years by 2020. Shockingly, recent observations suggest that this doubling period has further compressed to just 2 years. It is imperative to acknowledge and address this concerning trend, hoping it is not a foreboding indication of a new norm but rather an anomaly.
Human-induced climate change is a dynamic component of an intricate and unordered system, as per chaos theory. This implies that global warming is accelerating exponentially in a complex manner. Over the period from 1992 to 2023, we have presented compelling evidence, proposed remedies to mitigate climate change, and amassed valuable information through the engagement of millions with this climate model. Your participation has been invaluable. The incontrovertible data underscores that human-induced climate change is rapidly deteriorating our habitat.
Our climate model / experiment employs chaos theory to comprehensively consider human impacts and projects a potential global average temperature increase of 9℃ above pre-industrial levels. Global warming is a consequence of elevated thermal energy in the climate system, which comprises various subsystems. Chaos theory underscores the intricate and nonlinear nature of dynamic systems. Human well-being is compromised above a 1.5-degree temperature rise, rendering much of the Earth uninhabitable. A 9-degree Celsius increase would bring the Earth close to a wet-bulb temperature incapable of sustaining human life.
What Can I Do? There are numerous actions you can take to contribute to saving the planet. Each person bears the responsibility to minimize pollution, discontinue the use of fossil fuels, reduce consumption, and foster a culture of love and care. The Butterfly Effect illustrates that a small change in one area can lead to significant alterations in conditions anywhere on the globe. Hence, the frequently heard statement that a fluttering butterfly in China can cause a hurricane in the Atlantic. Be a butterfly and affect the world.
Here is a list of additional actions you can take.