Bail faster!
Disaster
[Verse 1]
Is it any wonder
We’re going under
Is it surprising
The water’s rising
[Chorus]
Not nice
The ice is melting
Think twice
In need of helping
Don’t fail to bail
[Break]
Bail!
[Instrumental, Guitar Solo, Drum Fills]
[Verse 1]
Is it any wonder
We’re going under
Is it surprising
The water’s rising
[Chorus]
Not nice
The ice is melting
Think twice
In need of helping
Don’t fail to bail
[Break]
Bail!
[Instrumental, Saxophone Solo, Bass Fills]
[Bridge]
Check the clock
A significant shock
Maybe Miami
Won’t be
Sorry
[Chorus]
Not nice
The ice is melting
Think twice
In need of helping
Don’t fail to bail
[Break]
Bail!
[Outro]
Going under
Blunder
Going down
(Down, down, down)
[End]
A SCIENCE NOTE
Sea levels have been rising faster, impacting roads and homes in South Florida. Over the past 80 years, sea levels have increased by about a foot, with 8 inches of that rise occurring in the last 30 years, according to Brian McNoldy, a senior research associate at the University of Miami’s Rosenstiel School of Marine, Atmospheric, and Earth Science.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) projects that this pace will accelerate significantly. While it took approximately 80 years for the first foot of sea level rise, the second foot is expected in just 30 years, the third foot in 20 years, and Florida could see the next foot in merely a decade after that.
“Presently, sea level is tracking in the intermediate-high to high scenarios, the two fastest,” said Randall Parkinson, a coastal geologist with Florida International University. “The other three scenarios are less relevant because we’re already rising faster than that.” These projections are used by South Florida governments to determine the elevation for new developments. However, after a new bill signed by Gov. Ron DeSantis this year, local governments seeking state funds for sea rise projects must only consider the intermediate-low and intermediate scenarios, a downgrade from previous legislation that required consideration of the intermediate-low and intermediate-high scenarios.
A two-foot rise in sea level by 2060, compared to present-day levels, would be a significant shock for Miami, where the average elevation is three feet. This is why local governments and the state are investing billions of dollars to keep streets dry and mitigate the impact of rising seas.
Scientific Evidence on Sea Level Rise and Climate Change
Sea level rise is primarily driven by two factors related to climate change: thermal expansion of seawater as it warms and the addition of water from melting ice sheets and glaciers. According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), global mean sea level rose by 0.19 meters (about 7.5 inches) from 1901 to 2010. The rate of sea level rise has accelerated in recent decades, averaging about 3.2 millimeters per year from 1993 to 2010.
Thermal Expansion
As global temperatures rise due to increased greenhouse gas concentrations, seawater expands. This process, known as thermal expansion, contributes significantly to observed sea level rise. The IPCC estimates that thermal expansion contributed to about 30% of the observed rise in sea levels from 1993 to 2010.
Melting Ice Sheets and Glaciers
The Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets, along with glaciers worldwide, are losing mass at an accelerating rate. Satellite data show that the Greenland ice sheet lost an average of 279 gigatonnes of ice per year between 2006 and 2018, while the Antarctic ice sheet lost about 148 gigatonnes per year over the same period. These losses add to the volume of water in the oceans, raising sea levels.
Regional Variations
Sea level rise is not uniform across the globe. Factors such as ocean currents, atmospheric pressure patterns, and the gravitational effects of melting ice masses can cause regional variations. For instance, the U.S. East Coast, including South Florida, has experienced higher rates of sea level rise compared to the global average.
Future Projections
The IPCC’s Sixth Assessment Report projects that global mean sea level could rise by 0.28 to 1.01 meters (about 11 to 40 inches) by 2100, depending on greenhouse gas emission scenarios. High-emission scenarios could lead to even greater rises due to potential ice sheet instability and other feedback mechanisms.
Economic and Social Impacts
The economic and social impacts of sea level rise are profound. Coastal communities face increased flooding, erosion, and damage to infrastructure. Saltwater intrusion can contaminate freshwater supplies, affecting agriculture and drinking water. Rising seas also threaten critical habitats, such as wetlands and mangroves, which provide important ecosystem services and protect against storm surges.
In conclusion, the accelerating pace of sea level rise due to climate change presents a significant challenge for coastal regions like South Florida. Understanding the scientific basis of sea level rise and implementing adaptive measures are crucial for mitigating its impacts and protecting vulnerable communities.