[Intro]
Don’t look now, but….
I can feel it in my gut
[Verse 1]
They said it might
Well, they were right
I see the light
Oh, yeah, quite right
[Chorus]
Here it comes
We’ll see who outruns
At this velocity
It seems unlikely
[Bridge]
Here it comes again
A little late to begin
At last, move fast
[Instrumental, Guitar Solo, Drum Fills]
[Verse 2]
Listen to the forecast
If it’s not too late
Too late, calm didn’t last
This storms irate
[Chorus]
Here it comes
We’ll see who outruns
At this velocity
It seems unlikely
[Bridge]
Here it comes again
A little late to begin
At last, move fast
[Instrumental, Guitar Solo, Drum Fills]
[Chorus]
Here it comes
We’ll see who outruns
At this velocity
It seems unlikely
[Instrumental, Piano]
[Outro]
Here it comes again
A little late to begin
At last, move fast
A SCIENCE NOTE
Imminent Risk: Violent Rain
In October of 2023 Sidd said, “Now I am thinking the violent rain will be a bigger problem before we die… still thinking it through. In the long run, ya, sea level rise will hit big. If you look at the history, it is episodic, and in the fast bits it can go up 3 feet every twenty years for five hundred years. But, the rain intensity is increasing faster today, and drainage cannot cope, whether in the city or out, culverts and such put in over the last hundred years cannot handle. So, I am paying a lot of attention to terrain and drainage far inland from the seacoast (like Ohio.) By drainage I don’t mean just human built. I mean that the natural streams and gullies and ravines have not evolved to a state that can handle the water volumes we see and the worse, larger volumes we will see. So expect huger erosion, steeper slopes to waterways, land collapses and such. Build out your drainage.”
The rain intensity is increasing faster today than ever known. Multiple factors figure into the physics of violent rain. The Momentum of Rain is p = mv (p = momentum, m = mass, v = velocity.) Part of the increasing momentum is transferred to the sides and upward increasing wind turbulence, as well as updrafts. Most of the momentum is transferred upon impact. You may notice the rain bouncing higher off the streets and sidewalks. As rain becomes more massive, it will have greater momentum when it hits the ground causing more damage. The momentum of rain and the turbulence of wind are part of a larger equation that includes not only the mass and velocity of precipitation but also the density. The combination of these variables results in an increased intensity of the flow dynamics. Increased updrafts will result in an increase in the frequency of hail. When violent rain becomes denser and turns into hail, it can be deadly. Ground without groundcover will be hit harder causing more damage. The groundcover will also be hit harder causing more damage. Concrete, asphalt, solar panels, roofs, and plants will sustain more damage. Hail may also impact your skull. Infants and young children are at highest risk. Several infants have been killed by hail in the past year.
Wind and water flow forces scale as the square of velocity, so as flow speeds increase (say due to more intense heating or heavier rain) the damage scales as the square of the velocity. Look at drag physics and you will see that force is proportional to density times square of velocity (v^2). So a twenty mile an hour wind exerts four times as much force as a ten mile an hour wind. And a forty mile an hour wind exerts sixteen times as much force as a ten mile an hour wind. A wind of fifty miles an hour exerts twenty five times and a wind of sixty miles an hour exerts thirty six times as much force as one of ten miles an hour. Then you have the density term. Water is about eight hundred times denser than air, So the force exerted by a ten mile an hour flow of water is eight hundred times that of a ten mile an hour wind. So as flow velocities go up due to climate change, force and damage scale as square of the velocities. What is not clear is how much these velocities increase with climate change. But in a sense we are seeing this already as, for example, flood and sewage systems succumb and hillsides fall down, and so on.
— from The Reign of Violent Rain / Brouse and Mukherjee (2023)