- Skewing -he-Mean-prequel-1.mp3
- Skewing -he-Mean-prequel-1.mp4
- Skewing -he-Mean-prequel-2.mp3
- Skewing -he-Mean-prequel-2.mp4
- Skewing-the-Mean-I.mp3
- Skewing-the-Mean-I.mp4
- Skewing-the-Mean-II.mp3
- Skewing-the-Mean-II.mp4
- Skewing-the-Mean-live.mp3
- Skewing-the-Mean-live.mp4
- Skewing-the-Mean-prequel-live.mp3
- Skewing-the-Mean-prequel-live.mp4
- Skewing-the-Mean.mp3
[Intro]
Extreme
Skewing the mean
The mean extreme
Skewed
And screwed
[Verse]
There’s a probability
… likely that we’ll see
Thunderstorms rollin’ in (Rollin’ in)
Yes, quite likely
That we’re gonna see
The downpour begin
(It’s rollin’ in)
[Bridge]
[Instrumental]
Rolling thunder
Makes me wonder
[Chorus]
In an age
Not average
All the rage
Savage
Extreme
Skews the mean
[Bridge]
Extreme
Skewing the mean
The mean extreme
Skewed
And screwed
[Chorus]
In an age
Not average
All the rage
Savage
Extreme
Skews the mean
[Outro]
Skewing the mean
Skewing the scene
A SCIENCE NOTE
Climate change is having a profound impact on the frequency, intensity, and distribution of extreme weather events, thereby skewing the “mean” or average of these events in several ways:
Increased Frequency and Intensity
1. Heatwaves: Climate change is causing more frequent and intense heatwaves. The global increase in average temperatures leads to a higher probability of record-breaking heat events. The mean temperature during summer months has shifted upward, making extreme heat events more common (Yale Climate Connections).
2. Heavy Precipitation Events: Warmer air holds more moisture, leading to an increase in the intensity and frequency of heavy rainfall events. This shift raises the average precipitation levels during storms, causing more severe flooding (Yale Climate Connections) .
Changes in Patterns
1. Storms and Hurricanes: While the total number of tropical cyclones might not have increased, their intensity has. Warmer sea surface temperatures fuel stronger storms, leading to more category 4 and 5 hurricanes. This shift increases the average severity of storms, even if their frequency remains constant .
2. Droughts: In some regions, climate change is contributing to longer and more severe droughts. Changes in atmospheric circulation patterns can lead to prolonged dry spells, increasing the mean duration and intensity of drought conditions .
Broader Distribution of Extremes
1. Cold Events: Although less frequent, extreme cold events can still occur due to disruptions in the polar vortex, possibly linked to climate change. However, their overall frequency is declining, leading to a skewed distribution where warm extremes are more common than cold ones (Yale Climate Connections).
2. Wildfires: Increased temperatures and prolonged droughts have created conditions more conducive to wildfires. This has led to more frequent and intense fires, raising the average number and severity of these events .
Statistical Shifts
1. Shift in Baselines: As the climate warms, the baseline or “normal” conditions have shifted. What was once considered an extreme event may now be closer to the new average. This statistical shift means that the distribution of weather events now includes more extreme values .
2. Skewed Averages: The increase in extreme weather events skews the mean towards higher values. For instance, an increase in the number of extreme heat days will raise the average temperature, making it appear as if the “normal” is hotter than before .
Conclusion
Climate change is altering the frequency, intensity, and distribution of extreme weather events, skewing the average towards more severe and frequent extremes. This shift has significant implications for ecosystems, infrastructure, and human health, underscoring the urgency of addressing climate change.
References
- Yale Climate Connections
- National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)
- Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)