[Verse]
In the thick of the jungle
A battle’s begun
Climate adaptation
We’re out in the sun
Frictions and uncertainties
They’re tearing us apart
Lower technology adoption
It’s a poison dart
[Verse 2]
Beliefs are inaccurate
It’s a dangerous game
Monetary losses
They’re causing us pain
We’re stuck in a cycle
We can’t break free
The cost of ignorance
It’s plain to see
[Chorus]
Apt to Adapt
The road is rough
Jungle rock revival
We’ve had enough
Frictions and losses
They’re driving us mad
It’s time to rise up
Take a stand
[Bridge]
Apt to adapt
Pick yourself up by the bootstrap
[Instrumental, Saxophone Solo]
[Verse 3]
Beliefs just are not true
What are you going to do
Losses mount
Can’t you count?
[Chorus]
Apt to Adapt
The road is rough
Jungle rock revival
We’ve had enough
Frictions and losses
They’re driving us mad
It’s time to rise up
Take a stand
[Outro]
Crap!
Can I adapt?
[End]
A SCIENCE NOTE
As the climate changes, efficient climate policy requires a better understanding of how individuals adapt. Despite extensive research on various climate adaptation frictions, including financial and technological constraints, models of adaptive decision-making assume that agents have perfect information and accurate beliefs about climate. Combining rural household data in Bangladesh with a meteorological measure of dryness, this paper studies the role of individual drought beliefs and their accuracy in irrigation decisions as a key adaptive margin. In a theoretical model, I introduce a behavioral friction to document how heterogeneous beliefs differentially influence responsiveness to the same meteorological signal in dryness. The empirical analysis reveals an asymmetric response to dry shocks in irrigation conditional on the accuracy of prior beliefs. A counterfactual analysis shows lower technology adoption levels and higher monetary losses when beliefs are inaccurate.
— from “Adapting to climate change accounting for individual beliefs”