(Knew new?)
Or new knew?
[Verse 1]
Surprise?
Rapid rise
Our demise
In our hand lies
[Chorus]
New normal
Everyday
Not normal
In any way
[Bridge]
Searing soaring
Temperatures roaring
Amateurs ignoring
Signs of warning
Quite alarming
[Instrumental, Guitar Solo, Drum Fills]
[Verse 2]
Oh no
Here we go
Like we don’t know
It’s our (shh)it show
[Chorus]
New normal
Everyday
Not normal
In any way
[Bridge]
Searing soaring
Temperatures roaring
Amateurs ignoring
Signs of warning
Quite alarming
[Instrumental, Saxophone Solo, Bass]
[Verse 3]
Can’t calculate
The increase in rate
Happens too fast
How can we last?
[Chorus]
New normal
Everyday
Not normal
In any way
[Bridge]
Searing soaring
Temperatures roaring
Amateurs ignoring
Signs of warning
Quite alarming
[Instrumental, Piano]
[Outro]
Signs of warning
Quite alarming
A SCIENCE NOTE
Some areas of the world are now warming so rapidly that it is becoming increasingly challenging to measure changes against historical “normal” or average temperatures. Jeff Boyne, a National Weather Service meteorologist and climatologist, explains, “There are climate normals that are updated every 10 to 15 years, because the planet is warming so fast. The ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation) regions are warming so fast that those normals are being updated every 5 years.”
Understanding Climate Normals
Climate normals are essentially average climate conditions calculated over a standard 30-year period. They provide a baseline to compare current weather patterns and detect anomalies. Traditionally, these normals have been updated every 10 to 15 years. However, due to the accelerated pace of global warming, especially in certain regions, the interval between updates is shortening.
Rapid Warming Regions
- Polar Regions: The Arctic and Antarctic regions are warming at approximately twice the global average rate. This rapid change affects sea ice extent, permafrost, and local ecosystems.
- ENSO Regions: The El Niño-Southern Oscillation regions in the Pacific Ocean significantly influence global weather patterns. These areas are now experiencing such rapid warming that climate normals need updating every five years to accurately reflect current conditions.
- Urban Heat Islands: Cities tend to heat up faster than rural areas due to human activities and the concentration of buildings and infrastructure, necessitating more frequent updates to urban climate normals.
Implications of Rapid Warming
- Weather Forecasting and Climate Models: The accelerated warming rates require constant recalibration of weather forecasting models and climate predictions. Accurate climate normals are crucial for predicting weather events and understanding long-term climate trends.
- Agriculture and Food Security: Farmers rely on climate normals for planning crop cycles. Rapid changes can disrupt planting schedules, affect crop yields, and increase vulnerability to pests and diseases.
- Public Health: Extreme heat events, which are becoming more frequent, pose significant health risks, particularly to vulnerable populations. Updated climate normals help in preparing for and mitigating these risks.
- Infrastructure and Urban Planning: Rapid changes in climate normals impact the design and maintenance of infrastructure. Cities need to adapt to increased heat, heavier rainfall, and other extreme weather events to protect residents and maintain functionality.
Adapting to the New Normal
- Continuous Monitoring: Enhanced monitoring systems are essential to track changes in real-time and update climate normals more frequently.
- Improved Data Collection: Utilizing advanced technologies like satellites, remote sensing, and AI can improve the accuracy and frequency of climate data collection.
- Policy and Planning: Governments and organizations must integrate updated climate normals into policy-making and planning processes to build resilient communities.
- Public Awareness and Education: Increasing public understanding of the rapid changes in climate and their implications can drive community action and support for climate adaptation measures.
The unprecedented rate of global warming is challenging the traditional methods of measuring and using climate normals. To keep pace with these changes, we must adapt our monitoring, forecasting, and planning approaches, ensuring that they are as dynamic as the climate itself.