LYRICS
The temperature’s rising
Boiler’s going to blow
All take action
That are in the know
With a mind that’s quick
Solve to slow
With a kind heart pick
Which way to go
The waters are rising
Going to overflow
All take action
That are in the know
With a mind that’s quick
Solve to slow
With a kind heart pick
Which way to go
Do you find it surprising
Food’s harder to grow
All take action
That are in the know
With a mind that’s quick
Solve to slow
With a kind heart pick
Which way to go
Chords: G/7 Bb C G / G C G / C D7 G
Instrumentation: Vocals, Acoustic Guitar
A song about the acceleration of climate change. How fast are humans causing the climate to change? When we started our experiments in the 1990’s, we thought the time scale was in millenniums. If climate change were happening on a linear basis, we would have been correct; however, by the late 90’s we were convinced climate change was non-linear.
Doubling time is the amount of time it takes for a quantity to double in size (exponential growth). By 2020, there was enough data to see the doubling time of some anthropogenic climate affects had gone from 100 years to 10 years. For instance the rate of sea level rise has gone from about 1.5 millimeters per year to over 3 millimeters. We expect to see the doubling period to continue to shrink raising the possibility of sea levels rising a foot/year by 2050.
At what rate is climate change accelerating?
A: Rapidly
As described above, we do not know the rate of acceleration other than to say it is more rapid than previously thought. In the summer of 2023, the extreme temperatures left most climate scientists shocked. The average earth surface temperature recorded record highs for months reaching over 3 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels. The Paris Agreement calls for keeping temperatures below 1.5 degrees. Scientists concur that a rise of 2 degrees will trigger feedback loops and tipping points. Triggering these tipping points results in the CO2 stored in nature to be released at an exponential growth rate. How extreme the acceleration will be depends on tipping points toppling other tipping points in what is known as The Domino Effect. Toppled tipping points will continue to shrink the doubling time and exponentially increase the rate of global warming. Though we do not know how much carbon is stored in nature, it would be reasonable to assume that the temperature could be pushed from 3 degrees to 6 degrees above pre-industrial levels. Humans can not thrive above a rise of 1.5 degrees. Humans can not survive if the temperature rises 6 degrees.
About the 2023 wildfires in Hawaii, Governor Josh Green said, “For perspective, we’ve had six fire emergencies this August, we had six fire emergencies between 1953 and 2003. That’s how- how fast things are changing. I know that there is debate out there whether we should be talking about climate change or not. Well, let’s be real world, climate change is here we are in the midst of it with a hotter planet, and fiercer storms.”
About the catastrophic die-off of 10,000 emperor penguin chicks in the Antarctic, Dr. Caroline Holmes of the British Antarctic Survey (an expert on Antarctic sea-ice) said, “What we’re seeing right now is so far outside what we’ve observed previously. We expected change but I don’t think we expected so much change so rapidly.”
— From Climate Change: Rate of Acceleration / Brouse and Mukherjee (2023)